Highlights
- According to the Conference Board of Canada, real GDP in the Quebec City census metropolitan area (CMA) totalled $32.9 billion in the third quarter of 2013, up 0.9% from the same period in 2012.
- Production was on the upswing particularly in the services sector (+2.1%), partly offsetting decreases in manufacturing (-7.5%), primary industry (-5.8%) and the construction sector (-3.2%).
- Cumulative GDP growth in the first nine months of 2013 was 1%, compared with the same period in 2012.
Commentary
As regards the construction industry, real GDP was down 3.2% in the third quarter, primarily due to a drop-off in housing starts. The residential slowdown took some of the shine off the non-residential sector, which is on track to top $1 billion in investments in 2013. Among manufacturers, a 7.5% decline in GDP over the past three months means that recovery will have to wait until 2014. News in the employment market is improving and order books are filling up, although these results have been slow to materialize in all segments.
The Quebec City CMA has had an up-and-down year, and the third-quarter results reflect that pattern. Under those circumstances, real GDP growth in the region should be approximately 1% for 2013 as a whole, slightly less than our expectation of 1.7%.
Louis Gagnon
Senior Economist
Quebec International
